Ethereum is faring weakly against the greenback earlier today as the index fell below $2.9k again. The market is also showing a weakening recovery overall. But, extensive data analysis from the derivatives market especially Ethereum futures shows us that a big move may be in the making.
Market Tanks Yet Again
The Cryptocurrency trading market especially the altcoins took a massive hit earlier today. Bitcoin itself tanked and went below $41k for a short while again before recovering above $42k at press time. Altcoins including Ethereum also showed big declines and the overall picture is quite grim for the bulls in the short-term as price tanks are being followed by weak recoveries that do not restore the previous status quo overall. Overall, the market is trending slightly downwards and that is a pressing issue for the immediate bullish cause.
However, according to recent analysis, Ethereum itself is close to a healthy price rally in the near future. It is because the derivatives data is very encouraging. Many of these futures, options, etc stats show that despite the latest price tank, a bullish case is still the most appropriate outcome of the near future. Over 72% of call to buy actions were placed at $3.2k and above according to derivatives data. Even with this crash, the derivatives traders are still hopeful of a good rally.
Friday’s Options Expiry
This brings us to the $1.56 billion worth of options expiry earlier today. The expiry did rattle the markets earlier today but it was within the margin of the futures data. According to it:
- Between $2,700 and $2,900: 61,900 calls vs. 72,000 puts. The net result is $27 million favoring the protective put (bear) instruments.
- Between $2,900 and $3,000: 79,900 calls vs. 52,200 puts. The net result is $80 million favoring the call (bull) options.
- Between $3,000 and $3,200: 82,500 calls vs. 37,300 puts. The net result is $136 million favoring the call (bull) options.
- Above $3,200: 99,600 calls vs. 20,200 puts. The net result favors the call options by $255 million.
To win this latest options expiry, the bulls just need to defend the $2.9k support level. If they can successfully do that, it will be considered an overall victory for them. Right now, ETH is trading at around $2.91 and it did go lower earlier today. However, this move was negated by the bullish recovery. Still, many things hang in the balance for the second largest cryptocurrency in the world and derivatives alone don’t provide enough of a complete insight into the current setup.
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